Participation in the last record Euromillions draw on July 8, 2022 is worrying, it has never been so low for a ceiling draw, especially when it reaches a record amount of 230 million euros. But why is the European lottery no longer a dream?
Never has the Euromillions prize pool been so large and yet the participation is not at these historic records, far from it. For several years now, the European lottery has seen its “pool” of players erode over the years while the jackpots continue to reach records like these 230 million euros at stake this Tuesday, July 12, 2022 in the draw, a half-hearted success… But why is the European lottery no longer, or less, successful? Answers…
Record kitty, but participation at half mast, why?
The Euromillions jackpot is historic and will again offer 230 million euros for this next draw on Tuesday July 12, 2022. Last Friday, this Euromillions cap had already been put into play and more than 56 million grids were checked off at across all of Europe. If this participation is very much higher than the average for draws of less than 100 million euros in stake, it remains low in view of the astronomical amount put into play by the European lottery.
Tired of losing? Lack of money due to the crisis? Summer break for players on vacation? So many arguments in favor of a clear and gradual decline in participation in lotteries, starting with the Euromillions in Europe, whose participation rates since the confinement of covid are struggling to start rising again.
Euromillions: the possible reasons for the loss of enthusiasm
92% of the grids are losers* (according to the probabilities)
The lotteries statistics and more specifically the European lottery are formal, you have a 92% chance of seeing your grid lose after a draw. If this probability has not evolved “too much” since the launch of the Euromillions in 2004, this could be one of the reasons for the loss of momentum of the European lottery vis-à-vis players who have access to more and more gambling with a high rate of return. Accustomed to leaving with “small” winnings more often in scratch games (Illiko), sports betting or online poker, the attraction to simple chance and its chances of winning seem to no longer be a dream…
Intermediate gains planed for the benefit of the jackpot in 2016 then in 2020.
Aware that participation is exponential as the jackpot grows, gaming operators, including the FDJ, have constantly modified the Euromillions regulations since 2004, tightening both the chances of winning the jackpot or the one of the intermediate payout ranks, but also making the payouts from the ‘non-jackpot’ ranks less attractive in order to fund faster growth of the jackpot.
If the rules of 2020 and the growth of the jackpot up to 250 million euros allowed to hit a maximum cap 4 times (200, 210, 220 and now 230 million euros)these also saw the melting of the money distributed at rank n°2 which only allows to hope for a return of 100 to 200 000€ where he offered rarely less than €500,000 previously.
On vacation, fewer lotteries, poker or sports betting players.
It is a fact, the consumption of gambling in the summer is very greatly reduced, especially with regard to lottery games, poker or sports betting. The casinos of the seaside resorts, on the other hand, are in full swing during the summer period.
The low participation recorded during the last Euromillions draw can be attributed to the summer period, which is not conducive to high participation in all the countries of the Euromillions community.
A lasting economic crisis in progress, and to come…
While history dictates that gambling participation has grown as economic issues escalate, the current reality may not follow this commonplace. Indeed, if risky gambling practices have increased since the covid crisis due in particular to the isolation of certain populations of players, the mass of players are less inclined to spend money on games of chance. like the Euromillions.
The coming years could see an increase in economic difficulties at the global level and this imbalance could once again harm the participation in games of chance, and in the first line the lotteries whose ability and the notion of “control” do not operatelike poker, horse betting or sports betting, which should benefit from the situation.
Euromillions: France yet strongly redistributing
1 guaranteed millionaire since 2014, My Million gives hope
In this ocean of arguments against the practice of Euromillions, several things show that the Française des jeux wishes to considerably improve the appeal of the European lottery for each draw and not dream exclusively of an astronomical jackpot that few people do. fall every year.
From 2014, ahead of other countries and the standardization of “raffle” practices introduced in 2016, the My Million game ensures a big winner of 1 million euros in France for each draw. This raffle is certainly the most striking factor of the last 10 years at Euromillions. Like the Loto raffle launched during the 2017 rules, most international lotteries offer this type of game which guarantees winners for each draw and greatly improves the hope of winning.
In France, every Tuesday and every Friday evening, you have between 1 in 3 and 5 million* chances of winning 1 million euros, a much higher probability than that of winning the jackpot, which is only one in 139 million different combinations.
* average number of games taken in France for Tuesday and Friday draws.
Etoile+, the 100% French option which gives a 25% chance of winning
Launched exclusively in France in 2016, the Étoile+ option of the Euromillions allows you to add 2 ranks of winnings to the 13 standard ranks and thus obtain a greater return on investment.
Concretely, you will receive a gain if you do not find any number and one or both stars. On top of that, you will also get a complementary win if you manage to enter the other 13 ranks of wins (including stars). This option increases the chances of winning a prize from 8% to 25%, i.e. a 1 in 4 chance of winning a prize.
With this option (which will cost you an additional €1 per grid played)the FDJ makes up for the very slim chances of winning at the euromillions european lottery.
Euromillions: 2 times fewer players than in 2006
The erosion of players has been very strong since 2004 and the launch with great fanfare of the first and largest multi-state lottery in Europe. Between the highest peaks of participation recorded in 2006 with more than 132 million grids played for certain prints and highest participation rates since 2019 which does not exceed 65 million registered gridsThose are 50% of players who left the Euromillions “ship” within 13 years.
The history of the European lottery is interesting since it shows that the successive changes to the rules aimed at increasing the prize pools ever higher have not made it possible to stem the decline in participation. Between 2004 and 2006, a very large number of prize pools were won due to an impressive participation, preventing the prize pool from rising permanently. The successive rule changes succeeded in their objective of increasing the jackpots, but also disappointed a large number of players who no longer saw the “possibility” of winning the jackpot.
Of course, this is a strong cognitive bias since the chances of winning the Euromillions jackpot were low from the start. However, the decrease in the number of winners due to the difficulty of finding winning combinations led to a drop in bets, which themselves led to a low drop in jackpots, the vicious circle had begun.
The Euromillions draw of July 8 which saw 56 million grids be played is symptomatic of the current crisis period in the lottery sector. Never had a capped draw collected so few players.
Below, find the participation rates for the last 5 capped Euromillions jackpots since 2019.
|Draw date||Capped jackpot amount||Number of grids played|
|Friday, July 8, 2022||230.000.000€||56,497,390 (-14%)|
|Friday, October 15, 2021||220.000.000€||65,739,684 (+7.2%)|
|Friday, February 26, 2021||210.000.000€||61.006.392 (+5.2%)|
|Friday, December 11, 2020||200.000.000€||57.814.247 (-5.8%)|
|Friday, October 8, 2019||190.000.000€||61.419.075|
A crisis in the global lottery sector
Let European gambling operators be reassured, the crisis in the lottery sector is not exclusive to the European market. In the United States in particular, the race for record jackpots operated in 2018 by the Mega Millions and Powerball games also saw the enthusiasm of players collapse when the jackpots were only won once every 2 to 3 months. on average. If participation in these multi-state lotteries in the USA increases when the jackpot exceeds 400 million dollars, it falls just as quickly when the jackpot ends up being won, and this lasts for several weeks.
Unlike these multi-state lotteries, the national lotteries retain a strong appeal, such as the French Loto, which knows how to maintain a very high participation like the Belgian Lotto and its very large number of winners or the new “accessible” Lotto América multi-state lottery on the other side of the Atlantic.