A measured but very real decline: cereal prices are falling on the markets, worried about gloomy prospects for global economic growth and for the moment rather calm about the summer harvest forecasts.
Cereal prices are falling on the markets. (©Pixabay)
Lhe price of wheat fell to 372.5 euros per ton on Euronext Tuesday, practically returning to its level of two months ago, far from its record of May 16 (438.25 euros per tonne). Rapeseed, which rose to 880 euros per tonne at the end of April, fell again on Wednesday in session below the 700 euro mark.
“We are faced with the anguish of the crisis, on markets which have hit their highest and which are starting to come back down, waiting for the new harvest “, told AFP Gautier Le Molgat, analyst at Agritel.
?? Symbol of the drop in raw materials, US oil dropped nearly $18/b in the space of a week??
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Yields – down 4.7% compared to 2021 in common wheat in the EU, according to the Commission’s latest estimates – “will be a little worse than last year, but it is far too early to take action. anything,” he says.
On the US side, “forecasts are less threatening”, according to Jason Roose of US Commodities: “With the United States and South America, with global supplies as they present themselves, global stocks could be the highest Of the history “.
The heat wave in France and Western Europe came at a time when wheat was already advanced and should not have suffered too much, the weather forecast in Australia is good and the heat on the American “Corn Belt” allowed warming soil that is too cold for sowing: these factors, which are rather reassuring at this stage, favored a market correction.
For Dewey Strickler, of Ag Watch Market Advisors, “wheat is down in particular because Russia has increased its production, estimated at around 89.2 million tonnes, which would be a record”. An estimate deemed “very optimistic” by Agritel.
80% of land sown in Ukraine
“We also see a market rather reassured by the fact that the situation has not worsened on the Ukrainian front, despite the lack of progress on possible maritime corridors to get grain out of the country”, underlines Damien Vercambre, broker at Inter-Courtage.
Analysts estimate between 1.5 and 1.7 million tonnes of the quantities of grain (all products combined) which now leave Ukraine each month by road and rail, ie still 5 to 6 times less than before.
The urgency for Kyiv remainsevacuate its last stocks to can welcome the new harvest. “At first we thought they were going to sow only 20% of their crops in Ukraine, then only 40%, now it seems that 80% of the crop has been sown,” says Jason Roose. “Now the question is whether they will be able to get these crops out. After state visits to Ukraine, meetings at European level and exchanges between kyiv and the African Union, “we feel that there is still a desire to facilitate business and the market takes this into account”, believes Mr. Le Molgat.
In a still volatile environment, buyers are timidly returninghoping for more reasonable prices: Algeria is said to have bought around 600,000 tonnes of common wheat this week from optional sources and Tunisia has launched a call for tenders for 75,000 tonnes of milling wheat and 50,000 tonnes of fodder barley , reports Inter-Courtage.
On the oilseed side, the fall in prices is also significant, after the recovery of Indonesian palm oil exports and thanks to the fall in oil prices – soybeans, rapeseed or palm oil being valued as biofuels – and a lower Chinese demand for soy due to lockdowns.
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